One of the simplest and most effective way to improve your trading system's expectancy (the amount of money you earn per dollar of risk) is to 'scale' in as price starts to move in the desired direction of your system's trading signal. Why is this effective? Well, let's look at an example trade. Suppose your wonderful new Metastock system (and Metastock comes pre-loaded with dozens of effective trading systems) is firing a 'buy' signal on UNG, the Natural Gas ETF. Let's also suppose you have a $25,000 trading account and don't want to risk more than 1% of the account on this trade. Assume the entry price is a buy-stop at or above $31.00 and your stop-loss (you do use stop losses, don't you?)is set at $29.50. Should you enter the entire position at $31.00 or should you use a technique that Jesse Livermore regularly implemented, one that helped make him a millionaire, even as it helped him to limit losses?
Make the market move in your direction:
Jesse liked to scale-in to his positions, especially if he expected a major trend-following move to develop. So, if Jesse were bullish on UNG, he'd probably put on a third of his position at $31.00, and then consider adding the next third near $32.20 and the final third near $33.75.
While at first glance it appears that this is flawed logic due to the higher average entry price, in reality it is one of the smartest and easiest ways to minimize the impact of trades that immediately turn against you and stop out, particularly if you trade a trend-following method. Look at this comparison:
A.) Jesse puts on one-third of his position (55 shares) of UNG at $31 and is stopped out two days later at $29.50. He loses $83, which is much less than 1% of his trading account equity of $25,000.
B.) Jesse decides to put on the entire position (165 shares) at $31.00, afraid of 'missing out' on a big move. He gets stopped out two days later at $29.50, losing $250, or 1% of his account equity.
Same trade signal, same entry price, different position sizes - and a radically different outcome!
OK, makes sense, but how much potential profit does 'ol Jesse give up if the trade turns into a big winner? The answer is 'not much!' Take a look:
UNG rises steadily, eventually stopping out at $47.23. If Jesse had scaled in by thirds at $31.00, $32.20 and $33.75, his profit would be $2,461.
If he had gone 'all-in' at $31.00 his profit would be $2678, a difference of only $217. I don't know about you, but it's a lot easier for me to take several $83 losses in a row than it is to endure a string of $250 losses, and the fact that my winning 'scale-in' trades will perform nearly as well as those who go 'all-in' make scaling in to trend-following setups a very easy decision to make!
So - consider scaling in to positions, especially if the technicals and fundamentals suggest a higher probability of a sustained move in the stocks, ETF's and commodities that you follow.
Always consult with your trusted financial advisor before placing any trades!